Land system science, the inter-disciplinary study of the processes that shape how land and natural resources are used, is essential to solving major societal problems such as climate change, poverty, food insecurity, and biodiversity loss. This PhD thesis uses innovative remote sensing and spatial statistical techniques to understand pathways and processes of cropland and tree plantation expansion in the emerging frontier of Northern Mozambique, where large-scale land acquisitions for commercial agriculture have risen sharply over the past two decades. The empirical results of this research improve understanding of where large-scale land acquisitions are occurring in the region, and the conditions in which land acquisitions consolidate smallholder cropland or encroach upon natural vegetation, such as forests and grassland. This work sheds light on the relationship between smallholder-dominated field crop expansion and commercially driven tree plantation expansion, where the two compete for valuable land resources, and the impact of Mozambique’s land tenure policies and practices. The methodological findings of this research demonstrate that it is possible to distinguish between smallholder cropland and large-scale commercial agriculture. Similarly, tree plantations can be disaggregated from natural forest and field crop using freely available software and satellite imagery. As Mozambique and many other countries ramp up efforts to mitigate climate change and promote rural economic development by investing in new tree plantations, this research shows that it is critical to monitor not only plantation expansion, but also the expansion pathways and land use trajectories to enable stakeholders to better understand the social, economic and environmental impacts of tree plantation expansion.

The public defense of Adia Bey scheduled for Friday 19 November at 4:00 p.m will take place in the form of a video conference