Eva Raiber

(Aix-Marseille University)

will give a presentation on

For better or for babies? The effect of the two-child policy in China on who gets married

Abstract: Can fertility policies have unintended effects on who gets married? We investigate the effect of the relaxation of the one-child policy, one of the strictest large-scale fertility policies of all time, on marriage. Before everyone was allowed to have two children with the two-child policy, some were already exempted from the strict one-child limit. Those exempted could have a "child advantage in the marriage market". In a context with a strong sex ratio imbalance with more men than women, the advantage can increase men's chances of getting married. Preliminary findings show that with the end of the one-child policy, those previously exempted as less likely to get married. The effect is exclusively driven by men -- the likelihood of women getting married stays unaffected. The results suggest that there was indeed a significant child advantage in the marriage market which, coupled with the skewed sex ratio, distorted who got married.

Co-author: Lucie Giorgi