Jing-Rong Zeng

(IRES/LIDAM)

will give a presentation on

Keeping the Long-term Peace – The Dynamic Effects of UN Peacekeeping Missions on Local Fatalities

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of UN peacekeeping missions on conflict reduction and their long-term dynamics. Combining geo-coded peacekeeping data with the UCDP conflict event dataset, we construct a comprehensive grid-year panel dataset covering all UN missions in Africa from 1994 to 2020.

We utilize the difference-in-differences methodology, drawing from recent econometric literature. In contrast to previous studies, our event study approach expands on the single difference-in-difference coefficient by introducing yearly coefficients that capture peacekeeping missions' long-term dynamic treatment effect. Moreover, our estimation framework accommodates staggered adoption and heterogeneous treatment effects, distinguishing it from the fixed-effect models employed in prior literature.

Our findings demonstrate that peacekeepers effectively reduce local fatalities and promote long-term peace, albeit with a time lag in establishing their impact. Furthermore, we identify heterogeneity in the treatment effect based on the duration of the peacekeeping intervention.

This paper contributes to the UN peacekeeping literature by incorporating state-of-the-art econometric methods and rigorously addressing concerns related to identification and endogeneity.